In Germany, UFOP reports that both buyers and sellers of rapeseed are notably reluctant at present. The former are stocked up well till the end of the season, but are also holding back as regards new-crop contracts. The latter are finding bids too low and their hopes as regards the 2019 harvest are somewhat clouded.
Nothing has been the same after the February price slide. Although the market is no longer as paralysed as it was three weeks ago, it definitely lacks momentum. This may be due to the slow pace at which prices are rising. In view of firming forward prices in Paris, farmers now continue to wait for a chance to obtain more money for the last rapeseed they have in storage. On the other hand, oil mills are adequately stocked up with rapeseed. They draw on extensive supply from imports. Consequently, the market is extremely calm at the moment.
However, what is new is that bids for rapeseed from the 2019 crop have exceeded those for old-crop rapeseed for approximately two weeks. This usually happens towards the end of the marketing year, especially when the crop forecast is low. Producers obviously find the contract prices much too low.
Weather conditions are the biggest uncertainty at present. Above-average high temperatures in the previous months and lack of rainfall in some areas have caused concerns about how the field crops might develop. However, things look good for the time being. Plants are not showing any signs of drought-related stress anywhere. In the wake of last year’s experience, farmers are now especially wary. No farmer wants to conclude contracts for volumes they will not be able to supply.