In Germany, UFOP reports that the current marketing year is likely to see the world’s second largest soybean crop on record, and that while the weather in Argentina spawns uncertainty, the Brazilian outlook is surprisingly positive.
There are signs that global soybean supply will again be ample in the 2017/18 marketing year. Whereas the US soybean harvest has been completed and the previously identified quantity of 120 million tonnes is believed to be relatively accurate, actual harvest figures for Brazil and Argentina could deviate significantly from the forecasts. Especially in the southern parts of Argentina, the crops are adversely affected by exceptionally high temperatures and a lack of rain. In current estimates the Argentinian 2017/18 soybean harvest is forecast down around 1 million tonnes from the previous month to 56 million tonnes.
The situation in Brazil is entirely different. Due to virtually optimal growing conditions over the past months, crop forecasts have been raised significantly, ranging from 110 to 114 million tonnes. According to information published by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (AMI), global soybean output could reach 349 million tonnes, a level just shy of the previous year’s record. Brazil, the US and Argentina account for just less than 82 per cent of this figure.